Patience Over Panic in Tariff Turmoil

How quickly markets change. Last week we were merely concerned about the residual affect higher US tariffs would have on the diamond trade; this week we’re on high alert about their direct impact.

Frankly, both lead to the same place — the American consumer. The most important question is how the tariffs will affect consumer confidence and spending in the long run.

We don’t quite know the answer at this stage, which naturally leads to confusion and uncertainty.

But amid the despair felt across the diamond industry in the past week, I’m reminded of a mantra often repeated by CNBC’s Jim Cramer that “Panic Is Not A Strategy!”

Patience is a far better approach, especially when dealing with matters one cannot control. Clearly, inventory sitting in the US is king at the moment. There has been a flight of goods from India to the US in the past week, as illustrated in this fantastic LinkedIn post by my colleague (and friend), who you should all be reading, Joshua Freedman.

As April 9 approaches, when those additional reciprocal tariffs are due to kick in, I expect the trade will lay low for a while. We’re sure to gain greater clarity and more color as to the weight of the new policy, and how it might cut into the diamond industry. Perhaps President Trump is merely dangling a carat for countries to negotiate. Gosh, did you see what I did there? the 4Cs? Anyone? Fine, let’s get down to business then, shall we...

Hot Off The Diamond Press

• Here’s my take on the tariffs: Diamond Costs Rise, Confusion Reigns (video)

• This Week in Diamonds (news roundup)

Pressing Matters

>>> Beyond all the tariff talk, it was a relatively slow news week in the diamond industry. The National Retail Federation published its 2025 forecast during the group’s annual ‘State of Retail & the Consumer virtual event on the health of American consumers and the retail industry.’ Bit of a mouthful of a name, but some interesting insights there.

>>> The real highlight, though, was the flurry of beautiful diamonds that were either recovered, came to auction, or were unveiled in the past week. So, I figured it would be appropriate to just dump a few favorites here for your viewing pleasure. And you might notice the yellow diamond theme… isn’t it funny how things happen in clusters? Join me in gawking at these beauties:

Rio Tinto recovered this gorgeous 158.20-carat yellow rough diamond at the Diavik mine in Canada — only the fifth yellow diamond over 100 carats unearthed at the mine.

Alrosa unveiled ‘The New Sun,’ a breathtaking diamond weighing over 100 carats, cut from the largest colored rough ever recovered in Russia.

It looks like a cushion-cut, Alrosa didn’t say...

Christie’s New York sold this stunner of a ring for $579,600 at its Online Jewels sale. The piece features a pear-shape, 2.97-carat, fancy purplish pink, VS2-clarity center stone, flanked by two shield-shaped diamonds weighing 1-carat to 1.50-carat. Not quite yellow, but certainly drool-worthy... 

This striking pear-shaped, 14.14-carat, fancy intense yellow, VS1-clarity diamond ring will lead the upcoming sale by Heritage Auctions in Dallas, Texas on May 5th.

The piece has a pre-sale estimate of $300,000 to $400,000.

Which is your favorite? Wait, before you choose, scroll down to our Pic of the Week…

Chart Check

Based on data published by the Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC).

Belgium experienced its lowest level of trade in years during the first quarter. The decline in polished and rough imports and exports reflected weak global demand, the changing role that Antwerp is playing in the market, and the loss of Alrosa rough since sanctions on Russian goods were applied in 2022.

Coming Up

• Sotheby’s New York ‘The Gem Drop April’ auction: April 7-10

• US reconciliatory tariffs take effect: April 9

• Sotheby’s exhibit of ‘Beyond — the World’s Rarest Diamonds’ in Abu Dhabi: April 9-10

• Chow Tai Fook FY4Q key operational data: April

Quotable Quotes

“It’s as if the diamond was squeezed and now is intensely blushing.”

Dr. Ulrika D’Haenens-Johansson, senior manager of diamond research at GIA in New York City, following a special examination on the Winston Red diamond, pictured below.

I think I love that quote almost as much as the diamond itself! Well, almost…

Pic of the Week

Scientists from the Gemological Institute of America (GIA), the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History Department of Mineral Sciences and the curator from the Paris School of Mines examined the Winston Red diamond – a very rare 2.33 carat red diamond currently on display at the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C.

The Winston Red is the fifth-largest diamond with an exceptionally pure red color known to exist and the only such red diamond on public exhibit.

The scientists were able to determine the cause of the diamond’s rare color and its possible geographic origin, which is most likely Brazil or Venezuela, based on its mineralogical characteristics and history, the GIA said. Read the full exciting press release here, and for the more scientifically inclined, the full article can be read here.

I told you diamonds are freaking awesome!

Images courtesy: Rio Tinto, Alrosa, Christie's, Heritage Auctions, GIA.